Marin County Real Estate Market Report
September 2026

Here’s The Latest Update On The Marin County Real Estate Market

The September report shows a Marin market that remains fundamentally healthy, even as we move out of the strongest part of the spring and early-summer selling season. Closed sales increased meaningfully year over year, pricing held firm, homes sold faster, and the sold-to-original-list-price ratio improved.

That strength is especially notable because August is traditionally one of the quieter months for Marin real estate. Travel schedules, school transitions, and late-summer timing often soften activity, but this year’s August data showed continued underlying strength. Compared with August 2025, closed sales rose 19.9%, inventory fell 11.3%, months of supply declined, homes sold faster, and the median sold price edged higher.

The broader Bay Area backdrop also matters. The Bay Area economy remains strong, optimism is high, and the continued creation of wealth — particularly around AI, technology, and related industries — is helping support buyer sentiment. This month’s report looks at seasonality, pricing power, fall inventory, buyer selectivity, and the Bay Area wealth trends shaping Marin demand.

The clearest theme remains supply. Marin had 431 homes for sale, down 11.3% from the same month last year, and months of inventory was 2.3, down 25.7%. That is still a relatively tight market, especially compared with national conditions.

Pricing was steadier than explosive. The median sold price rose only modestly to $1.4 million, up 0.7% year over year, but average sold price and price per square foot both moved higher. That suggests continued strength in the quality segment of the market, even as buyers remain careful.

Buyer behavior remains nuanced. The average home sold at 100% of original list price, a significant improvement from last year, and days on market declined to 43. At the same time, pending sales were down 20.6%, which suggests that the next wave of demand is more selective.

In practical terms, Marin is not an overheated market where every listing sells easily. It is a disciplined market where preparation, pricing, presentation, and property quality matter. Homes that align with buyer expectations can still perform very well. Homes that miss on price or require significant work may need more time.

Key Year-Over-Year Metrics For Marin County

• Median sold price: $1.4 million, up 0.7%
• Average sold price: $1.846 million, up 2.7%
• Average sold price per square foot: $916, up 7.4%
• Homes sold: 187, up 19.9%
• Pending sales: 143, down 20.6%
• Homes for sale: 431, down 11.3%
• Months of inventory: 2.3, down 25.7%
• Average days on market: 43, down 12.2%
• Sold to original list price ratio: 100%, up 4.2%

What This Means For Pricing Power

Pricing power remains present in Marin, but it is not universal.

The overall data still leans in favor of well-prepared sellers. Inventory is lower than last year, months of supply remains constrained, closed sales are higher, homes are selling faster, and the average sale is reaching 100% of original list price.

At the same time, the modest increase in median sold price and the decline in pending sales suggest that buyers are not chasing every listing. They are comparing value carefully, paying attention to condition, insurance considerations, remodeling needs, privacy, views, outdoor living, and proximity to amenities.

For sellers, the takeaway is that the market rewards accuracy. Pricing too aggressively can still create resistance, even in a low-inventory environment. For buyers, the market offers more nuance than the headline numbers suggest. The best homes can still move quickly, but there may be negotiating room where a property is overpriced, needs work, or lacks a clear buyer narrative.

Supply And Demand Heading Into Fall

Marin enters the fall market with less inventory than last year, but with buyers showing more discipline.

August is traditionally a slower month for Marin real estate. Many buyers and sellers are traveling, families are focused on the start of school, and some homeowners wait until after Labor Day to bring new listings to market. So a late-summer slowdown is not unusual. In fact, it is part of the normal rhythm of the Marin market.

That makes the September market especially important. September often acts as a mini spring season in Marin, with a fresh wave of listings coming to market before activity typically quiets again after October. I am already seeing that pattern begin, with new inventory starting to appear.

The 19.9% increase in closed sales is encouraging and shows that buyers are still transacting. But the 20.6% decline in pending sales is worth watching. It may reflect August seasonality, a smaller pool of compelling new listings, buyer caution around rates and affordability, or simply a more selective late-summer market.

The supply picture still favors sellers in the aggregate. With 2.3 months of inventory, Marin remains below the level generally associated with a balanced market. But the experience of selling a home will depend heavily on price point, location, condition, preparation, and the depth of the buyer pool for that specific property.

After October, the Marin market typically becomes quieter as we move toward the winter months. That can create challenges for sellers who miss the fall window, but it can also create opportunities for wise buyers. Some of the best values appear when competition thins, motivated sellers remain in the market, and overlooked properties have time to be reconsidered.

As we move into fall, I will be watching whether new inventory improves, whether pending sales recover, and whether Bay Area wealth continues to support the upper end of the Marin market.

Real Estate News Nationally

Nationally, the housing market remains slower and more inventory-heavy than Marin. The National Association of REALTORS reported that August existing-home sales fell 1.2% year over year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million. National inventory rose to 1.62 million homes, equal to a 4.9-month supply, while the national median existing-home price rose 1.6% year over year to $429,100. NAR also reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.67% in August.

That national backdrop matters because it continues to shape buyer psychology. Higher mortgage rates, affordability concerns, and increased inventory in many parts of the country are giving buyers more leverage nationally. Marin is different, but not immune. Buyers here may have more equity, liquidity, or wealth-driven purchasing power, but they are still value-conscious.

The contrast with Marin is striking. Nationally, supply is at 4.9 months. In Marin, months of inventory was 2.3. That helps explain why Marin can still show relatively strong pricing and absorption even while the national market feels more constrained by affordability.

Greater Bay Area Context

The Bay Area continues to behave differently from much of the national market, especially in San Francisco and parts of the Peninsula.

Redfin reported that San Francisco was one of the strongest major metro markets in August, with median sale price up 7.5% year over year, home sales up 9.5%, and active listings down 10.1%. By contrast, San Jose showed a more mixed pattern: median sale price was down 2.0%, while new listings rose 25.5% and active listings rose 17.7%.

That split is important for Marin. The AI wealth effect appears most visible in San Francisco and the Peninsula/Silicon Valley corridor, but the Bay Area is not moving as one uniform market. Some markets are tight and competitive; others are seeing more inventory and more buyer choice.

Golden Gate Sotheby’s Q2 San Francisco market update also showed significant strength in San Francisco earlier this year, with a $1.7 million median sales price, up 13% year over year, closed sales up 20%, average days on market down 26%, and inventory down 47%.

For Marin, the broader takeaway is that regional wealth remains a meaningful tailwind, but it is not evenly distributed. Homes with privacy, views, architectural interest, outdoor living, and a lifestyle upgrade story are best positioned to benefit.

Bay Area Real Estate News

The biggest Bay Area real estate story continues to be the concentration of AI-driven wealth in San Francisco and the Peninsula.

The San Francisco Chronicle reported that all-cash purchases accounted for roughly 30% of sales in the San Francisco metropolitan area from April through June, using Redfin data. The same article noted that AI-related wealth has helped some buyers compete aggressively for a limited number of homes in expensive Bay Area neighborhoods.

That does not prove that AI money is flowing north into Marin in a measurable way yet. Public data is better at showing what is happening in San Francisco, San Mateo, and San Jose than it is at identifying where individual buyers go next.

But the logic is clear. When wealth is created in San Francisco and the Peninsula, Marin often becomes a natural consideration for buyers seeking more space, privacy, outdoor living, schools, views, and a quieter residential lifestyle. That is especially true for buyers who can work remotely or hybrid and do not need to be in San Francisco or Silicon Valley every day.

The AI wealth effect should be understood as a tailwind, not a guarantee. It can support upper-end demand and buyer confidence, but it does not override fundamentals. Pricing, condition, location, insurance, architecture, and lifestyle still determine outcomes.

In My World

I just launched 56 Miwok Drive in San Anselmo, a rare opportunity to enjoy resort-like living in one of Marin’s most sought-after communities.

Set on just over an acre with sweeping hill and valley views, this Mediterranean-style estate offers exceptional privacy, generous scale, and a strong connection to the outdoors. The property features five bedrooms, four full baths, approximately 4,475 square feet, multiple living and entertaining spaces, a separate one-bedroom guest apartment, and an infinity pool and spa.

The setting is especially compelling: a private drive, landscaped motor court, mature gardens, outdoor living areas, and exceptionally easy access to nearby hiking trails, including Sorich Park and the Ridgewood Fire Trail. It is a property that feels wonderfully removed from everyday life while remaining close to Red Hill Shopping Center, downtown San Anselmo, schools, and the best of Marin living.

Looking Forward

The September report points to a Marin market that is still healthy, but increasingly selective as we move from the slower August period into Marin’s short fall selling season.

The positive signals are clear: closed sales are up, inventory is lower, months of supply is down, homes are selling faster, and the sold-to-original-list-price ratio has improved. Those are meaningful indicators of continued demand.

The cautionary signal is pending sales. A 20.6% decline in pending activity suggests that fall momentum should be watched carefully. If new inventory improves and buyers respond, the market could remain steady. If pending sales remain soft, sellers will need to be especially disciplined on pricing and preparation.

For now, Marin remains well positioned compared with many national markets. Supply is still constrained, regional wealth remains a factor, and distinctive homes with strong lifestyle appeal continue to stand out.

This is not a market where every listing sells easily. But it is a market where the right property, properly prepared and correctly positioned, can still generate excellent results.

How Can I Help?

I’m always happy to talk about the Marin County real estate market. Call or text me at 415-847-5584 for a personalized report for your home and neighborhood, or to discuss the best strategy for making your dream home a reality.