Happy New Year, and welcome to my first Marin County market report of 2026. December closed with a median sold price of $1,215,000 (down 4.7% year-over-year), 197 homes for sale (down 7.1% year-over-year), and 1.3 months of inventory (down 7.3% year-over-year). At the same time, the seasonal pace shift showed up clearly in marketing time: average days on market rose to 68 (up 21.4% year-over-year), even as supply remained relatively tight.

As we close out 2025 and move into the heart of the winter season, Marin’s market is doing what it typically does this time of year: fewer transactions begin, but well-positioned homes still sell, and the market rewards preparation and correct pricing. December’s numbers show a slower, more selective pace than the spring and early fall, with longer marketing times and a modest year-over-year dip in the median — alongside relatively tight supply.

Key Year-Over-Year Metrics for Marin County (December 2025 vs. December 2024)

• Median sold price: $1,215,000 (down 4.7% YoY)
• Homes for sale: 197 (down 7.1% YoY)
• Closed sales: 149 (down 3.2% YoY)
• Pending sales: 102 (up 21.4% YoY)
• Average days on market: 68 (up 21.4% YoY)
• Months of inventory: 1.3 (down 7.3% YoY)
• Average sold price per square foot: $819 (down 2.3% YoY)
• Sale price to original list price: 93% (vs. 95% last December)

What This Means for Pricing Power

The headline number this month is the year-over-year dip in the median sold price (down 4.7%). On its own, that can look more dramatic than it is, because December is a smaller, more seasonal sample and the median can move meaningfully based on which price tiers happened to close. The sale price to original list price ratio also softened (93% vs. 95% last year), which reinforces the broader theme we’ve been seeing in a more balanced market: buyers are more price-sensitive and condition-conscious, and homes that feel even slightly “off” on value or presentation tend to sit longer and invite negotiation.

At the same time, supply remains relatively constrained (1.3 months of inventory), which is an important counterbalance. The takeaway: pricing power still exists — but it’s increasingly “earned” through strong strategy, preparation, and precise positioning rather than assumed.

Supply and Demand Heading Into Year-End

Inventory is actually lower than last year (197 homes for sale, down 7.1%), and months of inventory is also lower (1.3 vs. 1.4). Yet market time increased materially (68 days on market vs. 56). That combination is worth noting because it suggests that the pace of demand has slowed seasonally and buyers are taking longer to commit — even though the overall supply picture is not flooding the market.

One encouraging signal is pendings: pending sales were up 21.4% year-over-year, which can be an early indicator that activity may be stabilizing as we move into the first quarter.

This Month’s Headlines

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 3.5%–3.75%, and signaled a more complicated path ahead for additional cuts (with a 9–3 vote).

• Bay Area venture capital funding remained exceptionally strong in 2025, with more than $140B deployed through November — nearly 60% of all U.S. VC funding — largely concentrated in artificial intelligence (per the Bay Area report excerpt you provided).
• The Bay Area report also underscored how “well-located and well-priced” homes continue to sell quickly, often over asking, even as the broader region moves toward a more balanced supply/demand environment.
• Wells Fargo noted that new home sales picked up in September and October alongside slightly lower mortgage rates and increased builder incentives, but that at the national level new home inventory remains elevated (7.9 months of supply at October’s sales pace).
• Wells Fargo also reported that incentives are rising: 40% of builders reported cutting prices in December, and 67% used sales incentives — with the national median new home price down 8.0% year-over-year in October to $392.3K.

Greater Bay Area Context

This month’s Sotheby’s annual market report is a helpful reminder that the longer-term trend line looks steadier than any single month. The report notes that across the SF Bay Area, the median sales price remained stable in 2025, sales volume increased, and inventory continued to rise, creating “more balanced conditions” compared to the extremely tight years immediately prior.

For Marin specifically, the annual report indicates the median sales price remained stable at $1.7 million in 2025 and that sales volume increased by more than 5% year-over-year. It also highlights that the luxury segment remains an area of relative strength. In that context, December’s softer median reading locally is best interpreted as a seasonal, mix-driven month inside a market that has generally been normalizing — not a definitive signal of broad value erosion.

Nationally, the Wells Fargo update adds another layer: while slightly lower rates and incentives have supported new home demand, elevated inventory and widespread builder concessions suggest affordability remains the central issue. Even though Marin is not a new-construction-driven market, these national dynamics still matter because they influence consumer confidence, rates, and buyer psychology.

In My World

I am working with several clients on preparing their homes for sale in 2026, but I don’t have anything to announce quite yet. I did recently bring an off-market home in Mill Valley into escrow for one of my seller clients — a great example of why, in certain situations, an off-market strategy can be the best path.

When privacy, timing, or control of the process is a priority, off-market exposure can reduce disruption while still creating real competition — especially when it’s executed through the right channels. Through my participation in Top Agent Network, I can quietly present a home to a highly vetted group of top-performing agents and qualified buyers across Marin, San Francisco, and the greater Bay Area.

It’s also never too soon to begin planning for the spring market. The homes that perform best in March, April, and May are typically the ones where strategy starts months in advance — deciding whether to go on-market or off-market, identifying the highest-impact improvements, and aligning timing with broader market conditions.

Looking Forward to 2026

As we look ahead, I’m optimistic about 2026 — not because the market will be “easy,” but because clarity and good strategy matter more than ever, and that creates opportunity. If mortgage rates continue to ease and the Bay Area’s economic engine remains strong (particularly in AI and related tech), we may see more buyers come off the sidelines — especially in the entry and mid-price ranges where monthly payments drive decisions.

On a personal note, thank you for your trust and support — and for helping make 2025 another top year for me in Marin County with Golden Gate Sotheby’s International Realty. I don’t take that confidence for granted, and I’m looking forward to continuing to serve you, your friends, and your family in 2026.

How Can I Help?

Marin County continues to offer a compelling combination of lifestyle, location, and long-term value. I’m always happy to talk about the Marin County real estate market. Call or text me at 415-847-5584 for a personalized report for your home and neighborhood, or to discuss the best strategy for making your dream home a reality. Check out my newly-updated guides, Buying a home in Marin and Selling a Home in Marin. If this is all new to you, check out my newest guide for first time home buyers in Marin County.