Supply Climbs, Sales Pace Slows as Summer Winds Down

July brought a noticeable change in market tempo across Marin County, with supply and days on market both climbing sharply year-over-year. Active listings reached 503 — a 33.4% increase from last July — while the average days on market stretched to 53, up nearly 40% from a year ago. This combination suggests that while buyer interest remains, it’s taking longer to translate into closed sales.

Pricing power, for now, is largely intact. The median sold price in July was $1.37 million, just 1.8% lower than a year ago, despite a significant increase in supply and slower sales velocity. This stability suggests that well-priced, well-presented homes are still commanding strong offers, even as buyers have more choices. However, with 33% more active listings than last summer, sustained price resilience will depend on how quickly this inventory is absorbed during the “mini season” that traditionally begins after Labor Day. 

Pricing Trends: Stability Amid More Choice

Despite the sharp rise in supply and slower sales pace, Marin’s pricing picture remains relatively steady. July’s median sold price of $1.37 million was just 1.8% below last year, a modest change considering active listings surged by one-third. This underscores the fact that demand for desirable homes remains strong, particularly in prime neighborhoods and updated properties. Still, the longer average days on market — now 53 days compared to 38 a year ago — hints at buyers taking more time to evaluate options, and perhaps negotiating more aggressively on homes that linger.

Broader Context: Rates, Seasonality, and Buyer Behavior

Mortgage rates remain a headwind, with the 30-year fixed hovering just under 7%. While this continues to temper some demand, many buyers have adjusted expectations, adopting a “buy now, refinance later” mindset as they anticipate rate cuts in late 2025 or early 2026. Seasonally, July and August are slower months in Marin, with vacations pulling attention away from the market. The post–Labor Day “mini season” has historically been a brief but impactful period, and this year it may be especially important: absorbing the current elevated inventory will be key to maintaining pricing stability into the fall.

Looking Ahead

The next 60 days will be pivotal. If the post–Labor Day mini season brings its usual wave of buyers, we could see a meaningful reduction in inventory and continued pricing stability into the fall. Sellers who list early in September will benefit from refreshed buyer activity before the traditional year-end slowdown. For buyers, the expanded selection and longer days on market present opportunities to negotiate — particularly on homes that have been sitting since early summer. Acting decisively on well-priced listings could pay dividends, especially before any further shifts in rates or seasonal momentum.

My Featured Listings

Since our last report, three exceptional properties have joined the market — each offering its own unique blend of location, design, and lifestyle.

25 Maoli Drive, San Rafael – Hamptons Elegance in Lucas Valley
Set on 4.2± acres at the end of a private road, this grand Hamptons-inspired estate offers 6 bedrooms, 7.5 baths, and nearly 6,800 square feet of refined living. Expansive lawns, a resort-style pool and spa, and a private spring-fed pond create an unparalleled retreat, surrounded by sweeping Lucas Valley hill views.

114 Richardson Drive, Mill Valley – Fully Remodeled Bungalow with Mt. Tam Views
Blending vintage charm with modern sophistication, this single-level 2-bedroom, 1-bath home has been completely remodeled with designer finishes and updated systems. Views of Mt. Tamalpais from the front porch and select rooms add to its timeless appeal, while the Strawberry location offers walkability to shops, dining, and easy 101 access. Learn more about Mill Valley here.

31 Gold Hill Grade, San Rafael – Modern Farmhouse in the Dominican
Built in 2019 and extensively upgraded with over $750K in enhancements, this 4,587± sq ft modern farmhouse sits on 1.1± gated acres. The home features 5 bedrooms, soaring 20-foot ceilings, a chef’s kitchen, wine cellar, and resort-style outdoor living complete with pool, kitchen, and level lawn.

Early interest across all three listings has been strong, underscoring buyer appetite for properties that combine architectural appeal, quality upgrades, and exceptional settings.

How Can I Help?

Marin County continues to offer a compelling mix of lifestyle, location, and long-term value, even as market dynamics evolve. Whether you’re considering a fall listing or are ready to take advantage of the increased inventory as a buyer, my expertise ensures you’re equipped to navigate the market with confidence.

These market reports are a great place to start, but let’s continue the conversation. I’m always happy to discuss the current market and the best strategies for buying or selling a home in Marin County or the greater Bay Area. Call or text me anytime at 415-847-5584 — together, we can make your real estate goals a reality.