Marin County Real Estate Market Report
February 2026

Here’s the Latest Update on the Marin County Real Estate Market

The new year is underway, and Marin’s market is already showing clear signs of momentum. Pricing strengthened year-over-year, pending sales rose, and inventory remained tight enough to keep well-positioned homes competitive. As we head toward spring, the story remains familiar: buyers are active, but selection is still the key constraint — and strategy matters more than ever.

January is often a “reset” month — new inventory begins to appear, serious buyers re-engage, and sellers start positioning for the spring market. This year, the numbers point to a market that is active and resilient, with demand showing up not only in closed sales, but also in the increase in pending activity — a leading indicator as we move further into 2026.

Key Year-Over-Year Metrics for Marin County (January 2026 vs. January 2025)

Here are the most important year-over-year changes from this month’s Marin charts (TrendGraphix / BAREIS MLS):

• Median sold price: $1,273,000, up 10.7% YoY
• Average sold price per square foot: $810, up 7.9% YoY
• Average days on market: 75 days, flat YoY (0%)
• Sold price vs. original list price (difference %): down 1.1% YoY (slightly less aggressive than last year)
• Homes for sale: 255, up 2.4% YoY
• Homes sold: 82, up 3.8% YoY
• Homes pending: 99, up 6.5% YoY
• Months of inventory (based on closed sales): 3.1 months, down 3.2% YoY

What This Means for Pricing Power

The headline is straightforward: pricing is up meaningfully year-over-year, and the market is rewarding quality. With the median sold price up 10.7% and sold price per square foot up 7.9%, buyers are still paying for the right home — especially when condition, location, and presentation are aligned.

At the same time, the sold-to-list dynamic softened slightly versus last year. That doesn’t mean the market is weak — it means buyers are more discerning and pricing strategy matters. In today’s environment, the homes that sell quickly and well tend to be the ones that feel “unmissable” on day one.

Supply and Demand Heading Into Spring

Inventory is only modestly higher than last year (255 homes for sale, +2.4% YoY), while pending sales rose 6.5% YoY, which is a strong signal as we move toward spring. Months of inventory remained tight at 3.1, slightly lower than last year on a year-over-year basis.

The practical takeaway: buyers want options, but the best homes still command attention — and sellers who plan, prepare, and price with precision are positioned to capture that demand.

Real Estate News Nationally

On the national stage, affordability and activity remain closely tied to rates and inventory:

• The National Association of REALTORS® reported January 2026 existing-home sales were down 4.4% year-over-year, while the national median existing-home price rose 0.9% YoY to $396,800.
• Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.09% (Feb. 12, 2026), down from 6.87% one year earlier — a meaningful year-over-year improvement that can help support buyer activity as we move deeper into 2026.

Greater Bay Area Context

The broader Bay Area economy matters in Marin — particularly when confidence, compensation, and hiring trends influence buyer behavior. One encouraging signal: leasing activity tied to AI continues to show real-world momentum, which supports the “macro backdrop” for the region even as housing remains rate-sensitive.

Bay Area Real Estate News

Two notable signals in the Bay Area worth watching:

• CBRE reported that AI-related tech companies leased 1.6 million square feet in 2025 and accounted for 55% of the tech industry’s net space growth in the Bay Area — a clear indicator of continued investment and expansion.
• The San Francisco office market is seeing renewed interest from AI firms: the San Francisco Chronicle reported active lease pursuits by AI companies in Showplace Square, signaling demand returning to specific submarkets.

In My World

One of my treasured long-time clients closed on the sale of her Mill Valley property at 33 De Silva Island Drive. We agreed on a pocket listing strategy, and I was able to sell it quickly and for full price through my contacts in the Marin real estate market.

I also helped a buyer find their dream home in Half Moon Bay. They had been looking in Marin for quite some time, and then a home that was their ideal match came on the market an hour south of us, right on the coast. In both cases, I worked with the clients for many months, until conditions were right. If my clients are happy, I am happy.

I also just launched 26 Mooring Road in San Rafael — a turnkey waterfront retreat with private dock access and a shared guest cottage, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2,523± square feet (buyer to verify), offered exclusively for $1,595,000.

And I just launched 31 Gold Hill Grade — a gated modern farmhouse estate built in 2019 with 5 bedrooms, 4.5 bathrooms, approximately 4,587 square feet (buyer to verify), and a 1.1+ acre lot, offered exclusively for $4,095,000.

I have some other exciting listings coming up and am working with buyers who are attracted to the lifestyle that Marin has to offer.

Also – be sure to check out my new Living in San Rafael and San Rafael homes for sale guides. If you know someone who is thinking of moving to Marin, these resources will prove invaluable.

Looking Forward to 2026

As we move toward spring, the buyers who are engaged now tend to be the most motivated — and the sellers who plan ahead tend to be the ones who capitalize on that demand. With pricing up year-over-year, pending activity rising, and inventory still constrained, I expect 2026 to continue rewarding preparation, presentation, and smart positioning.

How Can I Help?

I’m always happy to talk about the Marin County real estate market. Call or text me at 415-847-5584 for a personalized report for your home and neighborhood, or to discuss the best strategy for making your dream home a reality.

Check out my newly-updated guides, Buying a home in Marin and Selling a Home in Marin. If this is all new to you, check out my newest guide for first time home buyers in Marin County.